Thoughts on the Israeli commando raid on the Free Gaza flotilla

What a mess. It’s pretty screwed up from many different perspectives, but I would argue that Israel has taken the biggest blow through this, primarily because of the degree to which we now live in an information-centric world. From what I’ve seen and read, it appears that the Israeli government fell for the bait provided by those who for whatever reason want the suffering and/or blockade in Gaza to end, and attacked a flotilla of Turkish-flagged vessels in international waters that was carrying much-needed humanitarian supplies into Gaza, and killed at least nine people while leaving dozens wounded. I’m gonna keep my thoughts on this simple, from an international politics perspective:

Israel

• Textbook example of how you should NEVER do a raid. The flotilla’s goal was to bring in supplies but even more importantly raise awareness about the situation in Gaza as a result of Israel’s three year blockade of the region. I’m sure a lot more people know now about the desperate situation in Gaza compared to a week ago. And because the IDF responded in such a manner, perhaps believing that it would break the “Free Gaza” activists… well, suffice to say I am skeptical of this not backfiring.
• One reason why I think the Israeli accounts of this ‘tragic tale” are bullshit is because the media was on this WAY too quickly. Too prepared. I just find it extremely unlikely that you can prepare a detailed multi-page report within an hour or two of chaotic military action.
• Tactically, I was a little bit surprised by the IDF’s tactical incompetence. What I believe they *should* have done was let the ships in, and show the world how Israel does in fact care for the welfare of the Gaza strip, and as such the Free Gaza movement is unable to use this as a media propaganda moment.
• Overall, this can damage Israel severely, if for one ironic reason: The U.S. doesn’t “need” Israel as much as it did before, and rather it’s vice versa. Because of the invasion and occupation of Iraq, we pretty much have a puppet state in Iraq instead in the Middle East, and for better or for worse; we can force them to bend to our will more than the Israelis will.

U.S.A.

• I’d argue that the target audience of this is the U.S. more than Europe or the Midle East, both for the IDF and the Free Gaza movement. Israel doesn’t seem to care much about its public image in the Middle East, though strained relations with Turkey in particular certainly aren’t ideal. I’d guess that if this had happened during the Bush Administration, the IDF would be praised for valiant action in self-defense, but sadly for Israel, the Republicans aren’t in town anymore. The Obama administration has the option of either following the Israeli lobby in DC, or deal with the problem directly. Ideologically, I’d feel that Obama would lean more towards dealing with the issue, but on the other hand I’ve already seen him compromise on so many things that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him capitulate and tilt right again.
• The one thing the U.S. *shouldn’t* do is just sit on the fence – it’s a huge credibility blow. First off, Israel will continue to believe that it can do whatever the hell it wants and the U.S. will let it get away with it (the IDF attacked the USS Liberty before for crying out loud). Secondly, the “Islamic world” would view no U.S. response as tacit approval, which would then play into al-Qaeda’s PR machines and of course the Europeans aren’t nearly as forgiving of reckless Israeli actions as we are.
• One thing this could actually impact would be the existence of NATO, surprisingly. If Turkey invokes the NATO charter (attack on one is attack on all) – and it could, given that the ships were Turkish-flagged – and the U.S. doesn’t react, then NATO is dead. When the U.S. was attacked on 9/11, the NATO charter was invoked and that’s why they’re all there in Afghanistan right now. In a sense, the response to 9/11 proved that NATO was not purely an anti-Soviet pact and that it theoretically applied everywhere. If Turkey does invoke the charter and the U.S. refuses to go along with it, then it’s proof that NATO was indeed just a “U.S. pact” the entire time – the alliance exists only for our own selfish purposes. You can say goodbye to NATO assistance in Afghanistan.

Free Gaza Movement

• This bothered me to think about, because I tend to instinctively side with those that suffered the most. But honestly, there were six ships (as far as I can tell), and five were halted and inspected, in which nothing of significance occurred. I’m fairly certain they knew what would happen if a confrontation occurred and were prepared for the consequences, which were useful from an international media perspective – the deaths helped, sadly enough. This was intentional. That’s not to say that the Free Gaza movement *wanted* the civilians to die, but they were prepared for a huge mess to occur.
• If the IDF was smart, they wouldn’t have stopped them in international waters. Legally, within the 3 mile radius Israel would actually have jurisdiction and as such stopping and boarding wouldn’t be illegal (the Coast Guard does it all the time), and under maritime law this is a right of all nation-states.

So what’s likely to happen now?

• Military conflict between Turkey and Israel: Unlikely, but possible.
• Increased rocket attacks out of Gaza: Count on it.
• Increased global anti-Israel/Jewish terrorism: Definitely.
• Economic sanctions: Possible, at least by the Europeans, but hard to say.
• Change in the Gaza situation: Depends almost entirely on the U.S. response.